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Obama tackles economy security Buffalo News

Tue, 06 Jan 2009 19:36:00 +0000
By Peter D. Shapiro Excerpted from Taking Another Look January which is accessible at www.PDSConsulting.net The Market By December shares of Comcast our proxy for the U.S. cable industry were of their value their lowest end of year level of this decade. Meanwhile cable s average revenues per basic subscriber were up with Comcast s . X higher than in i as more subscribers bought cable s triple play of digital video broadband access and cable telephony In earlier New Year s notes ii I argued that the market was undervaluing the MSOs strong market position and growth potential. This disconnect persisted during a year that in economic terms qualifies as a full fledged Queen Elizabeth II annus horribilis . Despite the recession s parting gift the facts about cable that the market doesn t get are still valid and therefore are not repeated here. However things can change. Mobile Wireless in Cable s Future Why mobile wireless matters to cable Quadruple play adding mobile wireless to fixed TV broadband and phone has proven highly successful for operators outside the U.S. According to a recent national survey . of U.S. households are now wireless only over of adults aged live in wireless only households among households with fixed and wireless phones over receive all or almost all calls on cell phones iii . Wireless is a magnet for innovation VC investment and market buzz. It s the next new thing for multiplatform advertising and distribution of multimedia content. Competitive vulnerability The big telcos have mobile wireless and the MSOs don t. Before too much longer cable s triple play will be trumped by attractive quadruple play offers from AT T U verse AT T Mobility and Verizon FiOS Verizon Wireless. Verizon is now negotiating programming content deals that encompass both FiOS TV and mobile distribution. Growth of cable telephony will be eroded by wireless substitution. Among U.S. MSOs only Cox has announced that it will build mobile wireless network facilities in its service areas. Cox s mobile wireless initiative will set precedents for cable operators in testing features pricing and bundling options. Cox will also determine availability and cost of roaming agreements with incumbent wireless operators for calling that occurs outside of Cox s initially limited service areas. For now the other major MSOs are following a different path. Comcast Time Warner Cable and Bright House along with Intel and Google recently purchased minority shareholdings in Clearwire which is now building a G WiMax network. Using the Clearwire network these MSOs plan to offer data centric nomadic and mobile extensions of their fixed Internet access services. If they decide to add mobile voice which is vital to compete with the incumbent wireless operators the MSOs may do so as resellers of Sprint s G network capacity. The MSOs Clearwire based strategy is not a slam dunk. A WiMax network operator will have higher cost and sparser choice of equipment than operators employing the much more widely adopted LTE Long Term Evolution G wireless technology. In the U.S. three of the four largest wireless operators have stated they will deploy LTE leaving only Sprint Clearwire with WiMax. Both Alcatel Lucent and Nortel have decided to allocate their technology development resources to LTE while reducing their spending on WiMax. Fewer handsets will be available for WiMax or WiMax plus G voice than for the competitive G and G LTE systems. To compete effectively the MSOs must have flexibility to implement their own features and pricing priorities for wireless voice data and multimedia without having to rely on third party network operators that have separate agendas such as Clearwire and Sprint. On this we ve heard discouraging words from Clearwire s CEO who said that its MSO shareholders do not have the ability to direct the activities of the company nor is their approval required to undertake major business initiatives such as where or when we build our network. iv The Clearwire deal may provide a useful learning experience but is unlikely to get the MSOs where they need to be. Alternatively the MSOs could buy Sprint. It would immediately establish the MSOs as credible mobile wireless competitors to own the third largest U.S. wireless operator with M mobile wireless subscribers nationwide spectrum a nationwide G mobile wireless network plus its ownership of Clearwire a worldwide Tier Internet backbone network and a large Long Distance telecoms business. Because of well publicized problems and the overall stock market debacle of Sprint is cheap. Its market cap has shrunk to . B v down since its peak on the first trading day of . Given Sprint s B enterprise value market cap plus debt less cash each Sprint subscriber is currently valued at months of postpaid per subscriber revenue as compared to Comcast s months . For Comcast and other MSOs that might take this leap integrating and managing Sprint would be a major challenge however given the cable operators unique assets it is not beyond their abilities. It would be a game changer for the industry. From Internet TV Growth or Dumb Pipe U.S. viewers watched . billion videos online during November vi during which time they were not watching cable s TV channels VOD or advertising. While the majority of these Internet TV videos were probably transmitted over cable s high margin broadband connections most also involved no direct technical or business participation by cable operators indicating the risk that cable systems could become dumb pipes for Internet TV content. No one wants to end up as a dumb pipe. In defensive mode MSOs have complained about paying cable carriage fees to programming networks whose video content can also be consumed online for free. Some cable programming networks are responsive to such hints and are pledging to limit the content that they make available online. In proactive mode MSOs can participate in the growth of Internet TV by negotiating with online content partners to provide higher tier more reliable delivery of their premium content. Cable operators have technical means to accomplish this since they manage the QoS quality of service of their broadband access connections. This is sensitive politically because net neutrality proponents would likely accuse the MSOs of discriminating against non affiliated sites or against sites unable or unwilling to pay for higher level connections. To reduce political risk until now the MSOs have shied away from offering such deals. However on balance the cable and telco ISPs will likely prevail if they seek to exploit this opportunity. After all the ISPs network facilities were built with their own risk capital. Good better best options are common in the marketplace and generally are not perceived as discriminatory. To stay on the right side of net neutrality the ISPs would allow any online content provider to select and pay for the higher tier broadband connections on equivalent terms. The ISPs would also perpetuate the status quo by placing no restrictions on user access to any online destinations. Another proactive step is for major MSOs themselves to become providers of online infrastructure and content. For example Comcast has moved deliberately to establish a significant online presence by acquiring online assets and by upgrading its portal Comcast.net at which users can find over videos among other attractive features. The Coming of Convergence Convergent services variously combine TV Internet phone and mobile wireless components in a new product category. Such services have been discussed for a long time but for various reasons they have not yet made a significant appearance on U.S. cable systems. Now conditions are becoming more favorable for wider deployment potentially generating additional revenue streams from advanced advertising subscriptions and transactions. Examples A PCCW Hong Kong subscriber can purchase a movie theatre ticket on a TV channel that shows movie trailers download the ticket to his or her wireless device and show the ticket information as a barcode when entering the theatre. TV Caller ID provides information about an incoming phone call on a subscriber s TV set so that the subscriber can decide whether to heave himself off the sofa to pick up the phone or allow the call to go to voicemail. With Integra s MediaFriendsTM TV Chat a new application that will combine elements of TV social networking and mobile wireless like minded viewers can coordinate their watching of the same TV shows and communicate with their buddies by texting SMS messages that appear on all of their TV screens. Convergent applications will come sooner better and in greater quantity once MSOs have practices in place that welcome innovations from third party developers. On their list of New Year s resolutions for the MSOs might include a task to implement such practices along with taking another look at strategies for mobile wireless and for Internet TV. i Comcast operating cash flow margin also has increased to same as in from in . ii See Telling Cable s Story January Re valuing Cable January and Why Cable Shares are Undervalued January at www.pdsconsulting.net . iii Blumberg SJ Luke JV. Wireless substitution Early release of estimates from the National Health Interview Survey January June . National Center for Health Statistics. Available from http www.cdc.gov nchs nhis.htm. December iv CEO statement was made during conference call with analysts on December v As of market closing on December vi Nielsen data in Advertising Age Hulu November Viewers Down but Total Viewing Up by Michael Learmonth Dec . Peter D. Shapiro is founder and principal at PDS Consulting which specializes in cable and telecommunications assignments. His clients include operators financiers attorneys industry associations and government agencies. He provides opportunity assessments due diligence analyses competition monitoring and evaluation and industry expert litigation support. Disclosure He owns shares of Comcast Mediacom and Sprint. MORE CABLEFAX MAGAZINE How Things Can Change in Cable Quadruple Play Takeaways for US Cable Operators CableFAX The CableFAX The Greatest Hits of to Watch Rising Stars in Cable CableFAX The Magazine s Most Powerful Women in Cable SERVICES Read about the winners of CableFAX The Magazine s CableFAXIES Awards and find out who s working at the top of their game in cable PR and marketing. Click here. Reprint Inquires for CableFAX The Magazine please contact Lyndsay Bahn lyndsay.bahntheYGSgroup.com . For extra copies of CableFAX The Magazine please contact clientservicesaccessintel.com or . Add a Comment Name Email Comments Please enter the letters or numbers you see in the image. 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Sign up today for this free service from CableFAX. CABLE .NET POLL What would you rather watch Weed or Brotherhood Which telecommunications sector is going to get hurt the most during the current economic slowdown cable satellite telcos Home Business Programming Technology Competition Minisites Webinars Calendar Jobs Resources Subscribe Contact About Us Privacy Terms Advertising Site Map CABLE Access Intelligence LLC. All Rights Reserved. C. school Sasha Obama foreground and sister Malia get encouragement from President elect Barack Obama and wife Michelle Monday as they depart for Sidwell Friends School in the D. C. area. Story on Page A . First day Malia Sasha start in D. C. school Sasha Obama foreground and sister Malia get encouragement from President elect Barack Obama and wife Michelle Monday as they depart for Sidwell Friends School in the D. C. area. Story on Page A . Associated Press First day Malia Sasha start in D. C. school Sasha Obama foreground and sister Malia get encouragement from President elect Barack Obama and wife Michelle Monday as they depart for Sidwell Friends School in the D. C. area. Story on Page A . Click to view a larger picture Updated AM PRESIDENT ELECT BARACK OBAMA What s required for the economy right now is to put more money into the pockets of ordinary Americans who are struggling to make ends meet. Obama tackles economy security Must act now to break momentum of recession By Steven R. Hurst ASSOCIATED PRESS Story tools Larger Smaller Save Print Email More Photos Share this story WASHINGTON President elect Barack Obama plunged into rare pre Inaugural crisis talks with congressional leaders Monday declaring that the national economy was bad and getting worse and embracing tax cuts now expected to reach billion. He predicted that lawmakers would approve a mammoth revitalization package within two weeks of his taking office. The economy is very sick said Obama who met privately with leaders of both parties at the Capitol. The situation is getting worse. . . . We have to act and act now to break the momentum of this recession. If the two year plan is enacted workers would see larger paychecks almost immediately because taxes withheld by the government would drop. The break would be retroactive to Jan. and couples receiving a tax cut would begin receiving an extra in twice monthly paychecks as the government tries to spark more consumer spending. Obama who takes office two weeks from today has said that there can be only one president at a time and he repeated that principle Monday when it comes to foreign affairs. But when it comes to the floundering economy he clearly feels he cannot sit by until the swearing in. The reason we are here today is because the people s business cannot wait Obama said as he arrived on Capitol Hill. I expect to be able to sign a bill shortly after taking office he said. Pressed on the timing he said By the end of January or the first of February. What s required for the economy right now is to put more money into the pockets of ordinary Americans who are struggling to make ends meet he said. Obama s proposal to stimulate the economy includes tax cuts of up to billion including for most individuals and for couples if one spouse is employed as well as more than billion for businesses an Obama transition official said. The total value of the tax cuts would be significantly higher than had been signaled earlier. New federal spending also aimed at boosting the moribund economy could push the overall package to the range of billion or so. About billion would be used to extend unemployment benefits and to subsidize health care for people who have lost their jobs. The rest would go toward job creation projects such as roads and bridges and toward long term goals such as alternative energy programs. Meeting with Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi D Calif. Obama set a tone of urgency for dealing with a financial situation that he described as precarious. He said The speaker and her staff have been extraordinarily helpful in working with our team so we can shape an economic recovery plan and start putting people back to work. But he also met with Republicans in an effort to build broad support for quick action. This is not a Republican problem or a Democratic problem at this stage he said. It is an American problem and we re going to all have to chip in and do what the American people expect. During his meeting with bipartisan leaders of Congress Obama said he would make his stimulus proposal available on the Internet with a Google like search function to show each proposed project or program by congressional district according to three people who attended. After meeting with Obama House Minority Leader John A. Boehner ROhio said he was concerned about the plan s cost. This is not a package that s ever going to be paid for by the current generation Boehner said. It s being paid for by our kids and grandkids. Republican lawmakers want more details Boehner said but he replied yes when asked if he expected a stimulus plan to be enacted within six weeks. Said Pelosi It is a great honor and personal privilege to welcome you to this office. Tomorrow we will swear in a new Congress and we will hit the ground running on the initiatives . . . to ease the pain being felt by the American people. The Obama plan s tax cuts for individuals and couples would be a bit different from the rebate checks sent out last year by the Bush administration and Congress in a bid to boost the slowing economy. The relief this time would be awarded by withholding less from worker paychecks. That provision would cost about billion to billion over two years. For businesses the plan would let firms incurring losses last year take a credit against profits dating back five years instead of the two years now allowed. Another provision brought to the negotiations by the Obama team would award a one year tax credit costing billion to billion to companies that hire new workers and would provide other incentives for business investment in new equipment. We ve got an extraordinary economic challenge ahead of us Obama said and he predicted that a jobs report at the end of the week would show new declines. He had meetings with a broad array of House and Senate Democratic leaders and with a bipartisan group of key lawmakers. Obama has insisted that bold and quick action is necessary if the nation is to rebound from the greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression. He has said repeatedly that he wants a plan that will create million jobs. 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